In Rassmussen’s latest poll Obama is leading McCain by only one percentage point, 46%-45%. However, it is interesting to note some of the demographics in this poll that could have a major impact in the end as to which candidate will win this prized state.
Obama currently leads 50%-43% among women and McCain leads 47%-41% among men. But look at the opinions of each candidate; Obama’s favorable’s are at 51% with 47% viewing him unfavorably in FL. While John McCain’s numbers are much stronger, 60% view him favorably while only 39% view him unfavorably.
But a more telling number to be aware of from this poll, and one that I think is good news for McCain not only in Florida, but nationwide is while Obama leads McCain by double digits among voters under the age of 40, McCain has a commanding lead among Seniors. Well we all know that the Seniors will definitely vote, the question is, what percentage of these younger voters actually come out and vote in November.
Despite all of the challenges for John McCain due to the national environment, he is in a great position in July. With the conventions coming up, the horse race will then begin. If I’m John McCain, I feel pretty good about these numbers right now. Other battleground states like Ohio, PA and MI are showing these candidates neck and neck and in some cases McCain leading. All McCain had to do was stay in the game until the conventions. It looks like he has done so. With so many key coalitions like Seniors favoring McCain overwhelmingly this race is far from over.
