The fallout from Senator Ted Stevens’ indictment is coming quickly for some of the GOP’s most vulnerable members of Congress.  At least four members who are facing uphill battles during their re-election campaigns have announced any donations from Stevens will go to charity.  The four are:  Senators Elizabeth Dole ($21,000), Gordon Smith ($29,696), Norm Coleman ($22,000) and Susan Collins ($23,000).  Additionally, noteworthy Stevens’ contributions have gone to: John Ensign ($24,936), John Sununu ($22,000), Jon Kyl ($20,852), John Thune ($19,500), John McCain ($15,696) and Mitch McConnell ($13,500). 

As Republican members find their bank accounts lower than they may like them or need, will they give away the contributions to avoid the connection to Stevens’ indictments?  I believe anything that can tie an incumbent to more GOP scandal is detrimental to their campaigns.  You will probably see more campaigns donating their donations to charity. 

The McCain campaign launched their latest ad “Celeb�, today comparing Barack Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.  Spears and Hilton have careers made in tabloid heaven, have made their living feeding into the public’s fascination of them.  They have well crafted events and happen upon well-staged photo ops.  The public is mesmerized by them and want more.  More to read about, chat about, gossip about.  Spears and Hilton provide more without question.  It is all for entertainment value.  And judging by the coverage of Paris Hilton going to jail and Britney Spears going to the mental ward on Fox News, MSNBC and CNN, the public is enthralled with celebrity so much, that we call it news and give them permission to keep making headlines. 

Barack Obama feeds in to the public’s fascination.  He creates an electric atmosphere with his killer smile and way with words.  He is young and fun, with a talent for speaking a lot and offering little. 

The American public is not happy with the President, with Congress, the economy and they are looking for a little entertainment- Obama wants to entertain us.  It started out simple- Photogs snapping pictures when Obama was splashing around beachside without his shirt on.  The suspense escalated as the Obama versus Hillary drama ensued.  Finally, he is giving rock concert like speeches to thousands and thousands of Germans.  Obama skipped out on meeting with our hospitalized troops while overseas, yet his campaign is able to find time to play sports and speak to cheering Germans.  Yes, I am highlighting all of the over-the-top things that the Obama campaign has orchestrated.  But this is why he is so much like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.  They have survived on their rock star-like qualities.  Rock stars do not bring solutions to our government. 

John McCain will bring solutions while Obama will bring us “Hope.�  Not sure what “Hope� will do to fix the economy and deal with energy issues.  “Hope� will not ensure our national security.  “Hope� won’t do a thing for taxes. 

The public is beginning to see Obama fail the substance test.  Obama has been unable to provide strong answers to energy policy, foreign relations and economy questions.  According to a Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll on July 24^th.  Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:

merica does not want a rock star, they want a President.  John McCain is ready to serve day one, without fanfare and paparazzi. 

• Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
• Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
• Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.

America does not want a rock star, they want a President.  John McCain is ready to serve day one, without fanfare and paparazzi. 

Rassmussen’s most recent poll from July 23, 2008 shows Barack Obama with a 47%-42% lead in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

Voters in PA seem to view both candidates favorably, with McCain at 61% favorable and Obama at 58%.  McCain overwhelmingly leads with those voters in PA who feel National Security is the number one issue facing America, while Obama leads among those that feel the economy is the number one issue.

All of these numbers are very similar to generic Party voting, Republicans are viewed as better with national Security issues, and Democrats with the economy.

But PA is an odd state.  In the Southeast, Philadelphia and the surrounding counties, one must expect Obama to come out with a sizeable advantage.  In the “T” of PA, McCain will do very well, assuming the staunch conservatives stay on board.  It is in the Southwest and Northeast portions of PA that this race will be decided.

The Southwest is full of blue-collar, conservative Democrats, that I believe will have a difficult time voting for Obama.  Rick Santorum in his previous wins had always done well against liberal Democrats here because of the life issue.  It was not until the Democrats fielded a Pro-Life candidate in Bob Casey, Jr. that they were able to win in the Southwest.

The same holds true in the northeast portion of PA where many voters are Italian, Catholic and pro-life.  It will be hard for Obama to win these voters given his stance on the abortion issue.

So while Obama leads right now in PA, don’t forget that come November it will be geography that wins in PA, not necessarily who is better on what issue.

WRS’ CEO and Founder Chris Wilson appeared on MSNBC to discuss how the presidential candidates are addressing the faltering economy.

Hispanics have traditionally leaned more toward Democratic candidates than Republicans; however, between 1999 and 2006, Hispanic voters were progressively becoming more Republican with each election.  This trend has come to an end, as Hispanic voters have made a dramatic shift to become significantly more Democratic than any time in the past decade in just the past two years.

A Pew Center survey of Latino voters reveals that in 2006, Hispanics were leaning less Democratic since 1999 as 49% identify themselves as being a Democrat, and 28% Republican.  But in only two years, 65% of Hispanics now say they lean Democratic with only 26% indicating they are Republican. 

This sixteen-point shift is significant for any bloc of voters to move over a short amount of time and is a clear indication that Democratic candidates, principles, and issues are attracting more Hispanics than ever before.  The Pew survey attributes the movement to overall dissatisfaction with the county’s direction and increasing trust in the Democratic party to bring solvency to a number of Latino community issues.  However, the number of Hispanics that believe the country is headed on the wrong track (70%) is not drastically different from the overall number of voters in the US that believe the same (74%) [Source: NBC/Wall St Journal Survey - July 2008].  This means that Hispanics, like the majority of voters all over the country, are frustrated with the status quo - which includes a Democratic controlled Congress.

The fact that Hispanics are moving away from the Republican Party is another indication that the GOP brand is damaged and continuing to falter at a macro identification level; however, this doesn’t necessary mean that 65% of Hispanics will vote for a Democrat over a Republican in November.  The truth is that Hispanics, just like most swing voters, develop indirect personal connections with candidates.  These personal motivations contribute more to how these voters will cast their ballot than how they identify themselves (i.e., Democrat, Republican, Independent, etc).

Most swing voters (including Hispanics) won’t turn their full focus on the Presidential race until mid-to-late September at the earliest.  By then, both parties will have their conventions and ground operations will be in “full-swing.”  Television, radio, mail and print ads will begin to be more plentiful than interns on Capitol Hill.  These tactics will influence how these voters view and ultimately choose their next President.

A poll released today in New Mexico reported a 5 point advantage for Barack Obama over John McCain.  As both Senators campaign in swing states, the five electoral votes in fiercely competitive New Mexico become crucial to Electoral College mathematics. 

In 2000, Al Gore squeaked through with 366 votes to take New Mexico’s electoral votes.  In 2004, Rasmussen had President Bush trailing John Kerry by 7 points (43%-50%).  In 2006, virtually every poll showed Heather Wilson losing without question.

Many political pundits have put New Mexico in Obama’s win column.  While not even classifying the state as a possible toss up, they look to what the media says and not at what the numbers may show- possible room for McCain to overtake Obama’s advantage.  They do not look at history has played out in the past- unexpectedly high turnout in conservative areas such as San Juan, Lea, Curry and Eddy counties, especially along the eastern and southeastern portions of the state. 

Last month, Obama held an 8 point advantage.  Two months ago, it was a 9 point advantage.  Today, we are looking at Obama with a 5 point advantage.  According to the poll, even when the “leaners� are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 43%.  For now, call it a 6 point Obama advantage.  The poll shows that Obama “has a five-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns the vote from 82% of Republicans. McCain leads by thirteen among voters over 65 but trails among younger voters.�

Factors that remain to be seen: Popular Bill Richardson’s influence in turning out the Hispanic vote, particularly in the North Central region of the state.  If Darren White, the Republican candidate in New Mexico’s 1^st congressional district, will help mitigate expected hits John McCain will take in Bernalillo County.  If the message McCain offers resonates well, as expected, with many New Mexico voters and his ties to the western states.  Finally, if unaffiliated and independent voters break for the Maverick Senator from Arizona.

But this is not that great of news for John McCain.  When looking back at 2000 and 2004, the national trend numbers were fluctuating and showing a greater variation.  Currently, we have not seen that.  Another area of major concern would be that most state polls give the advantage to Obama.  According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama is currently leading in 26 states and McCain is currently leading in 24 states.  Giving Obama 322 electoral votes and McCain 216.   Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six additional states won by George W. Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. Virginia, which went for Bush, is considered a tie.  Money, time and resources can move lean Democrat/ toss up states to John McCain.  It is very possible this will occur in New Mexico.  Which states can the McCain campaign compete in?  It needs to be most of them.  It is all about the electoral math.

Voters consistently rank moral issues at the bottom of most important problems facing the country; however, they still find moral values to be very important, especially when they are considering who they would vote for or against in an election.

According to Gallup’s poll of the most important problems facing the country, the economy and the war in Iraq have been the top two responses since President Bush took office.  In these nationwide surveys, “moral issues” has never reached double-digits in percentage of respondents who feel it is most important as an issue facing the country.

Despite not being a top tier problem, a USA Today poll conducted in mid-June indicates that “moral valuesâ€� is still very important to voters.  The survey asked respondents a series of issues and to rank them as “extremely”, “very”, “somewhat”, or “not” important. Of the eight issues they asked, only illegal immigration at 59% scored a lower percentage of respondents saying “extremely important” than moral values, which received 69%.

While most voters are not worried about morality as a critical problem facing the country, moral values figures largely in how these voters view and choose their candidates.  This makes the candidates’ stance on moral issues paramount to earning (and keeping) votes, and is why campaigns often want to lead-out with ads and literature that seeks to introduce voters to a candidate’s views on marriage, life and family.

In Rassmussen’s latest poll Obama is leading McCain by only one percentage point, 46%-45%.  However, it is interesting to note some of the demographics in this poll that could have a major impact in the end as to which candidate will win this prized state.

Obama currently leads 50%-43% among women and McCain leads 47%-41% among men.  But look at the opinions of each candidate; Obama’s favorable’s are at 51% with 47% viewing him unfavorably in FL.  While John McCain’s numbers are much stronger, 60% view him favorably while only 39% view him unfavorably.

But a more telling number to be aware of from this poll, and one that I think is good news for McCain not only in Florida, but nationwide is while Obama leads McCain by double digits among voters under the age of 40, McCain has a commanding lead among Seniors.  Well we all know that the Seniors will definitely vote, the question is, what percentage of these younger voters actually come out and vote in November.

Despite all of the challenges for John McCain due to the national environment, he is in a great position in July.  With the conventions coming up, the horse race will then begin.  If I’m John McCain, I feel pretty good about these numbers right now.  Other battleground states like Ohio, PA and MI are showing these candidates neck and neck and in some cases McCain leading.  All McCain had to do was stay in the game until the conventions.  It looks like he has done so.  With so many key coalitions like Seniors favoring McCain overwhelmingly this race is far from over.

So Barack Obama had his Berlin moment today, and while it was neither “Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!� nor “Ich bin ein Berliner�, it was a landmark in its own way.

But since we’re 21st century digital short attention span types here at the Political Insider Journal, we just care how Obama’s Brandenburg-Gate-without-the-gate speech influences the U.S. Presidential race.  As long as Obama seems to want to be President, or perhaps King, of the Western World this may be a bit parochial of us. But that’s just the way we are sometimes.

By now, most of our readers will have seen reporting on the parallel language in one of Obama’s domestic stumps and his Berlin oratory:

“America, this is our moment. This is our time� – Obama, in MN, June 3rd.

“People of Berlin — people of the world — this is our moment. This is our timeâ€� – Obama, in Berlin, July 24th.

To understand what this all might mean, let’s go to the numbers (from the early July CBS News/New York Times national poll)

• McCain had an 11 point edge (73% to 62%) in the percentage of voters who described each candidate as “very patrioticâ€�.
• McCain had a huge edge (82% to 62%) in the percentage of voters who said each was likely to be an effective Commander-in-Chief.
• But, Obama trounced McCain by 48% to 18% as the candidate who will make the U.S. image in the world better.

Obama’s Eurotrip was always about maximizing his advantage on the third point.  The risk was always that he would compound his problem in the first two points and play into the narrative that he is elitist, un-patriotic, and unready to protect America and our interests.

Only time will tell whether today’s exercise in rhetorical hubris was the sort of thing Democrats must have feared from this trip and Republicans have been eagerly awaiting.  But since the blogs are alive with the sound of globalism, it must have at least some Obamites sweating a bit tonight.  We would encourage them to stay positive…at least he didn’t give the speech in French.

The headline sounds like the start of joke doesn’t it?  Maybe the set up would be better if it read, “Barak Obama, Britney Spears and Jennifer Lopez walk into a bar…�

In all seriousness, there is something to the analogy as indicated in a recent poll of likely voters in Ohio.  The survey showed John McCain opening a “modest� lead over Barack Obama.  This is up 6 points since two previous Ohio surveys.  What gives?  There are two promising trends for McCain in the poll.  The first is a bit nebulous but it points to what you might call Obama “fatigue.�  The national press is in some meaningful respects giddy for Obama.  And the public is noticing.  Nestled in the survey is this interesting question:

“Looking ahead to the campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain, will most reporters try to help Barack Obama, offer unbiased coverage, or try to help John McCain?�

51% Try to help Barack Obama
21% Offer unbiased coverage
13% Try to help John McCain
15% Not sure

Could it be Obama might end up suffering in November from the same overexposure that has afflicted Britney and J. Lo?  Good looks and charisma can carry you a long way.  And they have certainly helped more than their fair share of otherwise unqualified people get promotions.  But handsome midlevel managers have rarely had their promotions in the hands of 150 million voters. 

Given Obama’s obviously thin resume there is little for journalists to focus on beyond his personality so we’re likely due for more of the same fawning coverage.  Frankly, over the course of several months no one, no matter how gifted, is that interesting without some substance to back up the hype. It seems probable that the national press’ love affair will wear thin with voters.  Perhaps Ohio is a canary in the coal mine for Obama.