Some days you almost feel sorry for Blue Dog Democrats. Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have pushed the most liberal agenda in recent memory and they are the ones who are going to pay the price for it.

In the November House vote on healthcare, 39 Democrats voted against the bill. In the interim, one of those Democrats no votes has switched to the Republican Party and one has resigned from Congress for his participation in tickle fights. After several retirements and one death, Democrats need to win 216 votes to pass ObamaCare, the exact number of current members who voted yes in November. However, complicating the math for Nancy Pelosi is the fact that 6-12 yes votes are presumed to change to no votes due to their objections to the Senate’s language on abortion. Thus, Pelosi needs to change 6-12 votes from yes to no.

But taking a look at the list of the no votes, it becomes increasingly tough to see where Pelosi gets the votes. With the exception of Dennis Kucinich, who said yesterday that he intends to vote yes, every single member is in a competitive district. Furthermore of those only one (John Barrow, GA-12) is running for re-election Democrat leaning district (D+1). Three others are retiring so could be an easy target for Pelosi and her whip team. All the other no votes represent Republican districts. And there lays the difficulty for these 32 no votes. While Democrat leaders are cracking the whip to get them to switch their vote, they represent Republican districts and stand a good chance of losing their jobs in November. And if that isn’t enough, they will get labeled with the charge of flip-floppers, having voted against the unpopular healthcare bill before they voted against it.

from the PRIsm Political Report

 

 

New Statewide Polls

New statewide polls have been released for Senate and Governor in nine different states during the past few days:

 

 

CA-Gov:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Jerry Brown (D)                     45%

Meg Whitman (R)                  41%

 

Jerry Brown (D)                     48%

Steve Poizner (R)                  33%

 

Meg Whitman (R)                  52%

Steve Poizner (R)                  19%

 

Former eBay CEO Whitman is highly competitive against Brown in a very Democratic state.  Favorability ratios: Brown 52:40%; Whitman 51:35%; Poizner 37:40%

 

CA-Sen:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       47%

Tom Campbell (R)                43%

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       49%

Carly Fiorina (R)                    40%

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       49%

Chuck DeVore (R)                39%

 

Tom Campbell (R)                33%

Carly Fiorina (R)                    24%

Chuck DeVore (R)                  7%

 

Sen. Boxer continues to show weakness against even unknown Republicans like Assemblyman DeVore.  This is a race to watch.

 

CO-Sen:   (Public Policy Polling; 3/5-8; 580 likely CO voters)

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      43%

Jane Norton (R)                     43%

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      45%

Tom Wiens (R)                      37%

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      46%

Ken Buck (R)                         36%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           44%

Jane Norton (R)                     39%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           44%

Tom Wiens (R)                      36%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           45%

Ken Buck (R)                         34%

 

his PPP poll shows Bennet to be in stronger position than other pollsters, but confirms recent data showing Democrat ex-Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff polling better against all Republican candidates than appointed incumbent Bennet.

 

FL-Gov:  (Public Policy Polling; 3/5-8; 849 likely FL voters)

 

Bill McCollum (R)                  44%

Alex Sink (D)                         31%

 

Gov. Charlie Crist (R)           47%

Alex Sink (D)                         27%

 

PPP confirms other polls showing AG McCollum stretching his lead over FL CFO Sink to double-digits.  Gov. Crist, if he were to run against Sink for re-election instead of for Senate, has an even greater lead than McCollum.

 

LA-Sen:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/10; 500 likely LA voters)

 

Sen. David Vitter (R)            53%

Charlie Melancon (D)           35%

 

Pres. Obama Job Approval:   37:62%

Gov. Jindal Job Approval:       68:32%

 

Sen. Vitter continues to poll very well against Rep. Melancon. 

 

MN-Gov:  (Rasmussen Reports; 3/10; 1,000 likely MN voters)

Mark Dayton (D)                               38%

 

Tom Emmer (R)                                35%

 

Tom Emmer (R)                                37%

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D)      34%

 

R.T Rybak (D)                                   38%

Tom Emmer (R)                                35%

 

Marty Seifert (R)                                39%

Mark Dayton (D)                                38%

 

Marty Seifert (R)                                39%

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D)      35%

 

R.T Rybak (D)                                   38%

Marty Seifert (R)                               38%

 

Twenty-eight Democrat Farm Labor, Republican, and Independent candidates have announced their indiviudal candidacies for Governor.  State Rep. Marty Seifert appears to be the strongest Republican.  Former US Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T Rybak are the top Democrats.

 

MO-Sen:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/9; 500 likely MO voters)

 

Roy Blunt (R)                         47%

Robin Carnahan (D)             41%

 

Rep. Blunt continues to maintain a lead beyond the margin of error in this most politically even of states.  Favorability ratios: Blunt 56:37%; Carnahan 47:48%

 

NH-Gov:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/8; 500 likely NH voters)

           

Gov. John Lynch (D)              51%

Jack Kimball (R)                    32%

 

Gov. John Lynch (D)              54%

Karen Testerman (R)            28%

 

Gov. John Lynch (D)             50%

John Stephen (R)                  35%

 

Gov. Lynch appears to be in strong shape for a fourth term.  Similar polling in the Senate race shows Republican leads, thus underscoring the Governor’s political strength.

 

PA-Sen:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely PA voters)

 

Sen. Arlen Specter (D)         47%

Pat Toomey (R)                     41%

 

Sen. Arlen Specter (D)         51%

Joe Sestak (D)                      32%

 

Pat Toomey (R)                     42%

Joe Sestak (D)                      39%

 

This poll confirms recent data showing Sen. Specter with increased strength against both ex-Rep. Toomey and Rep. Sestak

 

WI-Sen:   (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute; 3/7-9; 600 likely WI voters)

 

Tommy Thompson (R)          51%

Sen. Russ Feingold (D)        39%

 

This poll provides further data that ex-Gov. Thompson would run strong against Sen. Feingold.  Reports say Thompson is close to forming a Senatorial exploratory committee

According to US Senator Lindsey Graham, President Obama’s plan to push ObamaCare 3.0 through Congress is an “arrogant� strategy that will divide the nation and risk preventing Democrats and Republicans from working together on any other issue this year.

 

“President Obama promised to come to Washington and deliver change we can believe in,â€� Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, said today in an interview on ABC’s “This Weekâ€� program, as reported in THIS ARTICLE ON BLOOMBERG NEWS ONLINE. “The way he’s doing things, the way he’s governing on this health-care bill — this arrogance, ignoring the American people — and trying to jam through a bill that nobody likes and deal out Republicans is going to make it impossible for me or anyone else.â€�

With most polls showing Americans disapproving of the Obama health care plan by double-digits over those approving of the plan, Democrats in Congress who vote for it may be setting themselves up for a bigger defeat in November than those who supported Clinton Care in 1993.

…Which was the last time we saw Washington act so arrogantly in such dramatic contrast to the will of the American people.

In what will be one of the most watched Governor’s races in the nation this election year, Republicans are in prime position to covert a Democrat-held seat.  Recent statistics from the Department of Labor show that Michigan holds the highest unemployment rate of any State in the country and voter discontent with the current economic conditions are hanging around the neck of current Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm based on her approval ratings. 

With a clear picture of voters hungry for a solid economic recovery plan from each of the candidates, current Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard released details of his “Economic Rebound Plan” that highlights positions for the current state government to make it easier for businesses to hire workers in Michigan. 

Independent polling for the Republican primary race in Michigan shows that “undecided” is the leader, leaving the door wide open for each candidate to demonstrate to the electorate that they are the right candidate to lead Michigan back to a path of recovery. 

A recent statewide survey showed that 55% of Michigan voters believe that ‘improving the economy/creating jobs’ is the most important issue that the State must solve.  With this issue being the single most important factor in how a voter will cast their vote, expect the other candidates in the race to follow Bouchard’s lead in releasing their individual economic plans.  The candidate who positions them self as the best person to lead Michigan out of economic turmoil will ultimately prevail in the GOP primary, as well as the general election in November. 

Congressional Democrats, already reeling from dismal approval ratings, have a big problem on their hands: now “former” Congressman Eric Massa.

As one Congressional aide put it -

While the Democrats attempt to ram the increasingly unpopular healthcare bill through Congress is sucking up most of the attention in the political world, there is new data from a recent democracy corps survey that deserves attention: the Republican advantage on national security has returned. According to the survey, voters prefer Republicans on national security by a margin of 50%to 33%. Although President Obama handling of national security (57% approve), the mishandling of the Christmas Day bomber and the decision to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in New York has taken its toll. As a result, Obama approval on his handling of the interrogation and prosecution of terrorism suspects is upside down with 51% disapproving and only 41% approving of his performance.

The bottom line here is that Republicans are advancing on all fronts and need to keep up the pressure, not only on healthcare, but on all the failures of the Obama administration.

 

As the Democratic Congressional Leadership considers a number of options to pass the President’s health care reform, campaign challengers and third-party organizations prepare a number of attacks that weaken party members everyday (like this one).

It seems as Democrats are currently painted in a corner as they ponder failure or passage of the legislation through a parliamentary loophole (aka, without a real vote). From my perspective, the Dems are in a lose-lose-lose position.

First, Dems lose everyday health care reform is still alive. Dozens of Republican opponents (and even some conservative Democratic primary opponents) are campaigning that they would be the “no” vote. In virtually every competitive district in the nation, a majority of voters oppose the health care reform for a number of reasons. Even if the reform is passed, the benefits won’t start fast enough to put down the nay-sayers.

Second, Dems lose if they pass reform without a vote. Now that Republican Scott Brown holds the magical 60th vote in the Senate, Democrats are considering the use of a parliamentary loophole that would enact the legislation without a real vote. This serves to only rally the voters who strongly oppose the reform and excites a group of people hell-bent on ousting every Dem who allows passage in this way.

Finally, Democrats lose if they fail. Despite being the best option, failing to pass health care reform emboldens Republicans and renders the White House powerless and vulnerable for the 2012 elections.

There is no doubt that health care reform, no matter its fate, will be seen as a major reason for the coming Republican renewal.

As Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are throwing legislative “Hail Marys” for the liberal agenda and trying to push through their healthcare bill via reconciliation, it is important to keep in mind the following numbers:

• A majority of Americans oppose the bill they are trying to ram through congress. According to pollster.com 50.2% oppose the healthcare bill while only 42.5% support it.
• Democrats have lost 4 yes votes in the house. (Republicans have lost one no vote with the retirement of Nathan Deal) Back in November the bill passed 220-215. With those four lost yes votes, the vote would stand at 216-215.
• Stupak and the pro-life democrats, account from anywhere 10-20 votes, depending on who is doing the counting. All indications from this group is that they cannot support the Senate’s language on abortion.
• There are 21 Democrats in toss up districts and 28 that are in districts that are rated as lean democratic by the Cook Report. These members are going to have to think long and hard about the healthcare vote and their political futures.

The bottom line here is that getting the healthcare bill through the House still has a long way to go and public opinion is not on their side.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

 Texas Primary Results

Republicans and Democrats went to the polls yesterday to select their nominees for the fall races.  Gov. Rick Perry, running away with the race in the final laps of the campaign appears to have won renomination outright against US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Wharton County GOP chair Debra Medina.  Perry captured 51.0% of the vote to Hutchison’s 30.4%.  Medina placed third with 18.6%.  Run-offs in Texas occur if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote.

 

The victory was huge for Perry, as he won nomination for a third full term as the Lone Star State’s chief executive.  He also finished George W. Bush’s final term as Governor, ascending to the top post from his post as Lt. Governor.  He is already the longest-serving Governor in the history of Texas, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election in November in what is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in America’s second largest state. 

 

The results reflected a monumental collapse for Hutchison, who began the race early last year with a big lead over the Governor.  Her on again-off again resignation from the Senate, a lack of issues focus in her advertising, poorly delivered attacks on Perry for his failed Trans-Texas Corridor project, and highlighting her endorsements from liberal newspapers to one of the most conservative voting electorates in the country cumulatively proved to be a highly flawed campaign strategy, despite the presence of Bush advisor Karl Rove as one of her top consultants.  The endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush, ex-VP Dick Cheney, and most of the Republican congressional delegation also did little to help her. 

 

Perry successfully labeled Hutchison as a Washington insider who had lost touch with the people back home.  He lambasted her support of the Bush-Obama financial bail-out legislation, coining the nickname Kay “Bail-out” Hutchison.  Perry moved hard right, playing to the primary electorate, by claiming that President Obama was “punishing” Texas, and even mused that succession from the US might be a subject people would begin addressing if the federal government continued along its current path. 

 

The Governor now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election.  White easily won the Democratic nomination, notching 76.5% of the vote in a field of weak candidates.  It appears that under 5% of the registered voters will have participated in the Democratic primary when all of the votes are finalized.  White’s total vote of approximately 450,000, representing ¾ of the total Dem ballots cast, is still more than 250,000 votes under Perry’s total, and he had just half of the Republican vote.  Total turnout will break 15% — over 2 million voters — which is a very large number for a Texas primary.  In 2006, for example, combined total turnout was only 1.1 million.

 

Though Washington, DC was completely rejected in the Governor’s race, the members of the congressional delegation facing primary challenges all did very well.  For Republicans, Reps. Ralph Hall (57%), Kevin Brady (79%), Michael McCaul (82%), Mike Conaway (77%), Kay Granger (70%), Ron Paul (81%), Lamar Smith (81%), Kenny Marchant (84%), Michael Burgess (86%), John Carter (90%), and Pete Sessions (84%) all cruised to easy victories.

 

On the Democratic side, Reps. Ruben Hinojosa (85%), Sheila Jackson Lee (67%, though the vast majority of votes in this district remain uncounted), and Ciro Rodriguez (83%) likewise won comfortably. 

 

In races that could potentially become competitive in the general election, the 17^th district of Rep. Chet Edwards (D) and against Rodriguez in the 23^rd, run-offs will be held on April 13 to finally determine nominees in those two seats.  2008 nominee Rob Curnock (29%) and businessman Bill Flores (33%) will square-off for the right to face Edwards.  This race could quickly move into the toss-up category.  Former CIA officer Will Hurd (34%) and businessman Quico Canseco (32%) will duel in the Rodriguez seat.  The Congressman will be a decided favorite in the general election.

With House Republicans poised to seek a floor vote to remove Rep. Charlie Rangel of his Chairmanship of the Ways & Means Committee, House Democrats in potentially competitive races will be in a tough situation in the wake of the Ethics Committee’s findings that House rules were broken.

The Hill’s Susan Crabtree writes on their tenuous situation.  Key excerpts below:

Reps. Betty Sutton (Ohio) and Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) have joined the ranks of Democrats calling for the New York Democrat to relinquish his gavel in the wake of the ethics committee finding that Rangel violated House rules.

There are now seven Democrats who have publicly called and/or voted to have Rangel give up his chairmanship: Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Paul Hodes (N.H.), Mitchell, Mike Quigley (Ill.), Sutton and Gene Taylor (Miss.).

Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) is giving money Rangel donated to his campaign to charity while Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) is returning funds to the 79-year-old chairman.

In a release, Kirkpatrick said, “The bipartisan ethics committee has found that Congressman Rangel did not live up to the standards Members owe to their constituents with this matter and continues to look into other serious breaches. While I deeply respect his lifetime of service as a soldier and as a U.S. representative, I can no longer accept his support.�

According to CQ Money Line, other Democrats who have received funds from Rangel this cycle include Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Reps. Dina Titus (Nev.), Eric Massa (N.Y.), Dan Maffei (N.Y.), Gary Peters (Mich.), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) and Mike McMahon (N.Y.).

The ethics committee found that Rangel violated House gift rules when he accepted reimbursement for two trips to the Caribbean that were sponsored by corporations. House ethics rules Democrats passed in 2007 after they won the majority bar corporations that employ lobbyists from sponsoring travel that lasts more than one day.